GLOBAL TRADE TRENDS and short-term forecast

The pandemic has impacted all parts of the world and every sector of industry. The World Center

Miami continues to monitor the current situation and report back to you on recent projections as

well as inform you on the movement of trade.

Both the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and the World Trade Organization are projecting significant declines for Q2 for global trade.

• Global trade continues nosedive, UNCTAD forecasts 20% drop in 2020
• The value of international trade in goods has declined by about 5 % in Q1 2020 and is expected to decline further by 27 % in Q2 2020
• World Trade Organization expects a decline at about 5%
• Trade Contraction from COVID-19 could be deeper than the financial crisis

Florida Trade

In Q1 there was a -2.09% decline in value in Florida origin exports and a -.60% decline in imports. Certain commodities have done well, others have been hard hit.   We do expect to see a greater decline in Q2.

of April, there was a -10% (-$1.9B YTD) decline in value in Florida origin exports and a -9.07% (-$2.47B) decline in imports.

The impact of global trade decline on Florida is along the same lines as the impact of the U.S. Below are trade impacts and trade flows for April YTD.

Origin Exports

USA                      -9.46%

Florida                 -10.3%

Imports

USA                      -9.03%

Florida                 -9.07%

FLORIDA Top Origin Export Markets:                                            

                                                Q1                               April 2020

Brazil                                      +1.75%                        -8.85%

Canada                                   +0.17%                        -4.74%

Mexico                                    -18.52%                        -19%

United Kingdom                    +42%                          +32.46

Japan                                     +47.6%                        +29.35%

Colombia                                -6.46%                         -14.87%

Dominican Republic               -0.12%                         -8.7%

Germany                                 -4.50%                         -13.06%

Chile                                        -14.11%                        -25.07%

Peru                                        -3.21%                         -17.7%

FLORIDA Top Import Sources:

                                                Q1                               April 2020

China                                      -32%                           -31.75%         

Ireland                                    +362%                         +346.62%

Mexico                                    -10.19%                        -18.22%

Canada                                   +16.88%                     +6.19%

Germany                                +17.51%                     +6.82%

France                                    -11.54%                        -22%

United Kingdom                   +53.16%                     -7.49%

Chile                                       +17.35%                     +9.32%

Vietnam                                  +45.42%                     +33.29%

Colombia                               +8.15%                        -3.93%

The Word Trade Center Miami will continue to report developments. Please stay tuned and sign up for updates.

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